Cuomo Pours It On NYGA

Governor Cuomo confirmed on Susan Arbetter's Capitol Pressroom radio show that he wants new VLT parlors in the event that a casino referendum gets voted down.  When the subject turned to gaming in the wide-ranging interview, the governor went on the attack against the racinos. 

  "These racinos are very well-financed players; they work this system extraordinarily well." 

In fact, they work the system so well that they pay a tax rate of around 67% that is one of the highest in the country.  The governor then rambles on about how the racinos are expecting another gift, to be handed casinos and he's not going to let that happen. 

  "I think the way we did racinos in the first place was a mistake..."

"How so?" 

  Yes.  How so? 

  "Well because, um, we never came up with any regulated system.  A lot of these players are politically connected; a lot of these situations were one-off political deals."

Really governor?  Again, the system is regulated enough so that the racinos pay an exorbitant enough tax rate to generate amounts, for the state, that dwarf those in lower tax havens like Atlantic City and Connecticut.  And, please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the law permitting racinos at racetracks was passed in the wake of the World Trade Center attacks in a desperate attempt to fend off a hit to the economy.  I don't believe there were any one-off political deals involved at all, other than the one for Aqueduct a decade or so later on.  So I don't think that Cuomo knows what he's talking about here.

When asked about his contentious new gambit to guarantee at least new VLT parlors, he stated the usual 'keep gambling revenues from going to other states' argument.  And then he turned on the racinos again. 

  "The current racinos come back and say 'no no no,' if it fails, that means the people don't want casinos, so the state should do nothing.  Well, by that logic Susan [smug snorting laughter], if it fails because the people don't want gaming, then we should close the current racinos.  Right?  [smug mocking laughter]  That's the only logical inference of what they're saying.  So their position is 'no no no,' if the referendum fails, don't build any new ones, give us a lifetime franchise with the existing ones.  That's not gonna happen." 

Well, actually, oh Mr. Powerful Governor, we'd be voting on an amendment to the state constitution that would permit Las Vegas-style casinos; not on the fate of the existing video lottery terminals.  By his same sarcastic logic, we should then also close the Indian casinos....the same ones which, while blasting racetrack racinos that pay out two-thirds of their revenue, he recently rewarded with territorial exclusivity despite their having illegally withheld payments to state and local governments for years.  And why not close the racetracks too, since he can't seem to accept the share of slots revenue they get?  Amazing how Cuomo can, in one breath, talk about how politicians should "step aside" in this process, and then, in the next, bring all of his political power to bear in an attempt to subvert the meaning and intent of the referendum and effectively override its result.

Look, I'm obviously no big fan of NYGA and racinos, and not in the habit of defending them in any way.   I've written often about the hypocrisy of the racinos' portrayals of their facilities as some hip hot spots where the young and attractive hang out for a howling good time rather than the grim money machines that they are; and their glowing press releases that ignore the detrimental effects of their gambling halls on vulnerable patrons and on the communities around them.  And we can be sure that, if they ever did get casinos, they would look to screw the racetracks as much as anyone else.  But Cuomo obviously has it in for them; and one can only wonder why.

Well, recall that the governor's "racinos are a scandal" speech last June came just a day prior to the NY Times revealing that NYGA had contributed $2 million to the Committee to Save New York, a pro-business group closely associated with the governor.  Given the ferocity and suddenness of Cuomo's remarks - "Showing a surprising hostility toward gaming interests," as Odato reported at the time - I speculated then that his people had gotten wind of the Times story and prompted the remarks as a pre-emptive defense against charges of lobbying influence.  (And the Times, to this day, has never reported on Cuomo's remarks that day, undermining the point of their big story as they did.)

So, this is pure speculation on my part and maybe I'm wrong, but perhaps the governor is persisting in his criticism of the racinos purely for his own personal political reasons.  Now, when Corey Booker raises the Times article in a Democratic primary debate, Cuomo can respond: "What, are you kidding?  I stuck it to the racinos where the sun don't shine."  (If not for the fact that I utilized crude profanity just in the last post, I surely would have phrased that last line differently.)

 - Some brief racing notes and then I'll let you go.  I posted this photo below on Belmont day, saying that it looked more like Father's Day.

So here's a shot from Father's Day from approximately the same spot.

Not much of a difference at all!

Maximova ($4.70) won a three-year old filly overnight stakes on the card; and man, I really like this filly, now three-for-three lifetime.  Don't usually get all ga-ga over young horses unless there's a good reason.  This daughter of Danehill Dancer was off slow in her prior race, waited in last with a patient John Lezcano, and showed a will to win when she bulled her way to a seam in midstretch and powered to the win.  On Sunday, she encountered a different kind of adversity, forced out of her game and into a stalking trip of an extremely slow pace.  Mariel N Kathy, a more experienced filly with an overnight stakes win on her resume, walked to three-quarters in 1:16.21 and proceeded to sprint home from there.  99 times out of 100, the horse in second fails to catch the leader when it comes home off a slow pace as Mariel N Kathy did, in 34.53; final 1/8th in 11.56.  But Maximova would not be denied, slinking up the rail and gaming out the win in a relentless display of grit.  Quite impressive.

And gotta mention the facile win by Verrazano in the Pegasus at Monmouth.  Sure, he glided to an extremely soft opening quarter of 24.82.  And of course his life was made easier when Itsmyluckyday was pulled up by Mike Smith.  But I always find it noteworthy when a dirt horse runs every split faster than the prior one, as Verrazano did.  (For the record, 24.82, 23.93, 23.92, 23.31, final 1/16th in 5.74.)  I liked his Wood a lot more than most, and though I soured on him for the Derby, he gets the automatic Derby/sloppy track pass for that effort, and I can definitely see myself getting suckered in on this one down the road.

Cuomo Adds Cruel Twist to Casino Bill

Reports over the weekend that Governor Cuomo is attempting to add a cruel twist to his casino legislation which needs to be agreed on by the legislature before it adjourns on Thursday in order to trigger a referendum this fall. 

  The new provisions state that if a casino expansion referendum fails with voters this fall, a new VLT-only casino may be located in New York City, except Manhattan; new VLT facilities could also be located upstate near existing track-based facilities.

The plan poses a direct threat to Genting New York, operator of the successful Aqueduct Racetrack. Genting has been seen in Albany as having some of the deepest financial pockets if it wanted to oppose a casino expansion referendum vote.

But the governor's newest plan appears aimed at Genting and some of the other VLT racino operators with a threat that any opposition of his casino plan that leads to the referendum's defeat will still result in damaging competition for the limited flow of gambling dollars. [Bloodhorse]

  Oh boy.  Can't think of much to say other than:  Motherfucker! 

Adding further fire, Cuomo is proposing any new VLT facilities have to pay a 40% tax rate, more than 20% below what racinos now pay the state. Moreover, the new facilities would be licensed for periods of five years, with renewal options. Any existing VLT facility–there are nine racetrack casinos scattered around the state–would have to have its license renewed under a set of strict new conditions by June 30, 2014.

Cuomo added wording to his new draft bill that specifically states any of the new VLT facilities the New York Gaming Commission would select would not have to be affiliated in any way with existing Thoroughbred or Standardbred racing operations.

With respect to this governor's brand of hardball, maybe now I can better appreciate how the opposite side of my political spectrum feels.  Talk about arrogance!  Coming just a few days after the NYGA announced their opposition to the legislation, Cuomo is attempting not only to effectively take them, and any other potential racing industry opposition, completely out of the referendum ballgame, but to blunt the impact of any referendum vote, and turn it almost into a matter of semantics.  We'd get expanded gaming at facilities to be sited by commissions controlled by the governor either way.  Fact is that while VLT facilities may not have traditional casino table games, they are able to electronically simulate most of anything.  The restrictions to electronic games sure haven't dulled the results at Resorts World, that's for sure.

And this would mean that the racing industry is a loser, no matter what happens in a vote.

So, it would seem to me that it's not overly dramatic to say that the prospects of racing in New York State now rests on negotiations over the language in the bill that will take place over the next few days entirely behind closed doors, amongst our legislative leaders who have no real interest in much of anything other than their own political fortunes.  I would think there's hope that Cuomo's proposal will not survive.  Legislators, particularly the Senate Republicans who control the Senate in cohoots with the IDC, will surely try to resist the governor's latest attempt at a power grab, already unhappy as many are with Cuomo's original concept of three upstate casinos only (they have now gained a 4th casino as opposed to the governor's three, but still restricted from NYC).  But it puts us all in a precarious and helpless position wishing that so.

 - An article in the NY Times over the weekend discusses the effects of the Aqueduct racino on the local community.  And it's a far cry from the rosy predictions we heard from Genting and giddy politicians back when the plans were first announced. 

  Though it seemed as if it should be a busy place, full of pedestrian traffic and businesses servicing varied cultural interests, it has the bloodless feel of a Sun Belt village lost to misbegotten visions.
......
As Alberto Livecchi, a longtime resident of South Ozone Park and the owner of a store selling musical equipment, explained, the construction of the casino — a racino, in gambling parlance — came with promises that have not materialized. Having been sold as a boon to local commerce, it has instead affected businesses negatively, Mr. Livecchi argued. “People are just funneled into the casino and don’t leave,” he remarked. Whatever street life there was has been destroyed, residents said; pawnshops are ubiquitous. “Casinos are only interested in enriching themselves,” Mr. Modica said. 

Ample data on how gambling affects local businesses suggests that these men are not hallucinating. In the 1990s, researchers at Iowa State University examined the consequences of riverboat gambling for business owners in Clinton, Iowa, and found that while 12 percent reported an increase in business, 29 percent reported a decrease, and 60 percent reported no change at all. And racetrack casinos, as Clyde Barrow, a political economist who studies gambling, explained, draw most customers not from the far and wide but from a 30-minute radius. Rather than drawing new money to the area, it seems, they divert local dollars to gambling. [NY Times]

Avenues of Accessibility

A good friend of mine, who is not a racing fan but tunes into watch the Triple Crown races if he's around, told me that he likes Michelle Beadle on the NBC coverage.  Trying to paraphrase his feelings here.....he said something to the effect that she "opens up an avenue of accessibility" for him into an otherwise alien and unfamiliar world.

I'd rather not report that because, frankly, she makes me want to throw up in my mouth.  But I must do my duty as an objective observer of the scene.  And I suppose that if Ms. Beadle, whose pointless Crossover show on NBC Sports Network I had the misfortune to stumble across the other day, shines a light on our game for even a handful of people such as my friend, then I guess her presence is worthwhile even if it sends us racing fans scrambling for the mute button at times when our energies could be more productively applied otherwise.  As I've said, the network coverage of these races no longer opens up avenues of much of anything for those of us who (think we) know everything there is to know from being online and on Twitter all day.  We're better off with TVG or HRTV.....or just the track feeds, where the coverage is geared towards us., and we might actually learn something.

 - Ramon Dominguez has announced that he will be unable to return to race riding after he fractured his skull in February.  To me, he was the Angel Cordero Jr of the present time; always seemed to have his horse in the position it needed to be in order to have its best chance to win.  Sad that he will be unable to continue riding, but glad that he's still in one piece.  I'm sure we'll be hearing from him in some capacity down the road.

 - At Belmont on Wednesday, trainer John Sherriffs got his first winner, in his 5th start, since shipping to New York from his usual base in California; that after some very well-bet and well-beaten losers.  Peace and Justice ($8.40) was making his first career start, on the grass.  He's a three-year old son of War Front out of a Smart Strike mare; and he's a half-brother to the graded turf winner Hudson Steele.

NYGA (Finally) Turns Against Casino Legislation

The New York Gaming Association, representing New York State's racetrack racinos, announced their opposition to Governor Cuomo's proposed legislation to, in the initial phase, site three casinos upstate.  In a statement, NYGA President James Featherstonhaugh said:

After considerable study and analysis, the members of the New York Gaming Association (NYGA, which is comprised of the state’s racetrack casinos, known as “racinos”) believe that the proposed “Upstate New York Gaming Economic Development Act of 2013” will not have the result desired by the legislation’s supporters. The new casinos authorized by the legislation (and referendum) will instead simply cannibalize as much as 85% of the state’s current gaming market, shifting revenue and jobs from one facility to another but resulting in no real increase in new jobs and an annual loss of $1 billion of tax revenue for education.

The proposed legislation would permit the creation of new, Las Vegas style casinos in close proximity to the existing racinos. These new casinos will have new, high tech slot machines (which are much more attractive to customers than Video Lottery Terminals), table games, the ability to extend credit to customers, higher wager limits without withholding winnings, a tax rate as low as 25%, and fewer safeguards than exist under current law. Racinos currently pay an effective tax rate of 67% to the state, so when their current revenue shifts to the new casinos paying just 25% in taxes, the net result will be a major loss of tax revenue used for education.

As a consequence, it is not possible for NYGA to support the current proposed legislation. We believe that the only way to prevent the loss of major tax revenue and the stagnation of jobs is by permitting the five racinos not located near current Tribal zones to operate under the same rules proposed in the new legislation. This would prevent the loss of tax revenue for our schools, result in the immediate creation of tens of thousands of new jobs, and spark billions of dollars of new investment.

Well, now....my only question is, what took them so long?  Anyone who's been reading this blog knows that I've repeatedly predicted that NYGA would eventually pivot and turn against this thing; and that hardly makes me a genius (despite the Head Chef's protestations to the contrary!).  This was virtually written in stone as far as I'm concerned going back almost exactly one year ago when the governor, when asked about the prospect of the racinos getting exclusive rights to the expanded gaming, replied "I 100% oppose that." 

  "The current racino situation in this state is a scandal, in my opinion.  You try to find the rhyme or reason on racinos, and why taxpayers get what they get, it defies logic."

The group went silent for awhile, but surfaced again, tentatively at first, with ads touting their success in generating jobs and education income.  But Cuomo has been quite clear about his casino plans, and it was just a matter of time before NYGA would oppose them.  Don't really know what they were waiting for.  Perhaps Featherstonhaugh is so used to getting his way as a prominent Albany lobbyist that he thought he could impose his will; and his recent announcement that his Saratoga racino would expand was perhaps his final last gasp attempt to do so.  (And I've never understood how this group would hold together if just one of its members managed to score a license.)  But now, with the legislation being shaped behind closed doors, and with Genting, its most successful racino operator and the one with the most resources, in a competition with other aspirants in the Catskills area for the one facility to be sited there (it holds a stake in Empire Resorts, which is proposing to relocate its Monticello track and racino to the old Concord site) and hardly guaranteed success, the group has finally conceded defeat.

Racetracks themselves are also paying close attention to the proceedings....or at least they should be.  According to the language in the bill released last week, in the case that a casino actually is awarded to a current racino, it shall:  Maintain payments made from video lottery gaming operations to the relevant horsemen and breeders organizations at the same dollar level realized in 2012, to be adjusted by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, as published annually by the United States department of labor bureau of labor statistics.

While that may provide a floor for the horsemen and breeders, it also appears to cut them out of any gains that the VLTs at the facility may provide, excludes revenue from the new gambling games that would be featured in full casino....and I don't see anything about payments to the racetracks themselves, only to horsemen and breeders.

It also states:  All racetracks locations awarded a casino gaming facility license shall maintain racing activity and race dates, as deemed appropriate by the commission.   That "as deemed appropriate by the commission" is a potential loophole big enough to fit Belmont Park itself through, and surely doesn't provide any comfort to horsemen who have fought so hard to maintain their racing dates.

New casinos that are not currently VLT operators would be required to donate five percent of its "net revenues from slot machines" as follows: 3% to the closest racetrack (thoroughbred or harness), 1.5% to the next closest racetrack and .5% equally divided between the Harness Fund and Thoroughbred Breeding Fund.  But that obviously would only benefit the nearby track; and what exactly would constitute "net revenues from slot machines" is hardly clear.

And that is all besides the obvious potential damage that competition for gambling dollars from casinos could do to the racing industry in the state.  Politics sometimes makes strange bedfellows.  The NYGA and the NYS Horse Racing and Agriculture Industry Alliance - the group formed late last year by thoroughbred AND harness horsemen along with the NY Farm Bureau - could become fast friends in this fight, and the latter should welcome any help it can get.  Anyone connected with the racing industry - and any of us who care deeply about its fate - need to see the casino referendum go down in flames this November.

The Happy Recap (For Me At Least)

Never got around to putting up a final pre-Belmont picks post; partly because of time limitations, and partly because I didn't know exactly who to pick on top anyway.  Came up with my wagers as I was standing at the paddock pre-race.  However, I obviously wasn't letting Palace Malice get away at those odds without having a bet on him.  Wrote last week that there's some price out there that I'm absolutely locked in to him, after having him in his hopeless Louisiana Derby journey and his out-of-control Derby dash; and 13.80-to-1 surely qualified as such.  However, found it hard to make a rational handicapping case for him based on his having shown that he was good enough to win.  It was more a case that the circumstances of his defeats meant that he hadn't proven he was bad enough not to.  And, as I indicated in my last post, I was leaning towards using Oxbow and Unlimited Budget as well.  So, I used those three as keys, and Orb, who I'd said I had a feeling that he wouldn't win, underneath only, and had a really fabulous Belmont, nailing the winner, exacta, and triple.  Those picks are here somewhere if one stitched together the posts, so I hope this doesn't come across as after-the-fact bragging.  I crushed the race, and seems that I don't get to say that very often, so that was obviously a lot of fun.

Was listening to Maggie Wolfendale in the paddock before the race talking about Oxbow, and she answered her own question about his ability to stay the mile and a half distance with an emphatic "No!"  Something about his short hind quarters or something like that; have no idea about that stuff and let the experts fill me in.  However, can one really say that Maggie was wrong even though he ran second?  Don't know that coming home in 28.05 seconds - a 54.79 final half mile - qualifies as staying the distance.  Sure he appeared to be game in holding off Orb for second; but was he, or was that an illusion created by the Derby winner flattening out after his long attempt to rally?

Of course, it's not surprising that the race would be so slow at the end - Palace Malice took 27.58 seconds to get home; final half in 54.13 - considering that they went 23.11 and 46.66 for the first quarter and half (and thanks to the connections of the hopeless Frac Daddy for bringing him along and having him gunned from the rail - that was a really constructive contribution to the game).   (By comparison, last year, Paynter - so closely related to Oxbow, both by Awesome Again and out of full sisters - was able to rate to 49.1 and 1:14.3.)  Palace Malice wasn't far behind the scrum, and the fact that nobody was able to catch the top two - and that only the Derby winner made even a semi-serious effort - makes me really wonder about this whole Triple Crown exercise.  We've had slow closing fractions in this race over recent years to be sure.  But this was ridiculous, with most of the field floundering despite what should have been an ideal pace setup to at least make it competitive.

I read Joe Drape trying to compare this year's three Crown winners to the 2007 crop (Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Rags to Riches).  Personally, I don't see how one can be inspired to make that comparison after this race.  Curlin and Rags to Riches battled down the stretch in a final quarter of 23.83!!  That was a real horse race.  This approached farce territory, and it came after one of the slowest Preakness times (track variants aside) in history, and a Derby with a too-fast pace that makes it hard to really evaluate, especially in light of the failure of the top three finishers to subsequently replicate their performances.  Hopefully, we'll see these horses perform better at more normal distances and maybe we'll be able to make that comparison some day.  But surely not now.

I've always been a stout defender of maintaining the format as is when we periodically hear calls for change.  But if our top three-year olds are finishing our "test of champions" in quarter times that now barely even qualify as harness horse time, then maybe it really is time to step back and re-evaluate.  It can't be good for the horses, and it sure ain't pretty to watch.  It's a bit embarrassing too.  If these horses simply can't run a mile and a half, then maybe they shouldn't be asked to run a mile and a half; especially after some of them have run twice in the prior five weeks.

Crowd of 47,562 was surely a disappointment given that the Derby and Preakness winners were in attendance - only a couple thousand more than 2010, when they were both absent.  (And why exactly were there only 46,870 in 2007 for Rags to Riches?)  My over/under coming into the day was 55,000; but I lowered that by 10,000 when I was out in the back by the duck pond pretty late in the day and saw this.

Looked more like Father's Day than Belmont day.  Could have parked the ABR bus back there.  So I was leaning under even my revised number.  Thinking maybe they must have counted all the cops and security goons to get to 47,562.

I'm inclined to give NYRA a pass on the crowd number.  The security measures were a tough row to hoe to be sure; they had to have discouraged a significant number of people.  The coverage I heard on the news in the immediate days before the race were all about those measures, and NYRA had to expend time discussing them instead of a matchup of the Derby and Preakness winners and the large field which made it a compelling wagering challenge.  And they had an ethical, in addition to practical, obligation to do so, to get the word out.  Not sure myself if their marketing efforts were short of prior years - seemed comparable to me.  I saw a fair number of print ads, they did the Empire State Building press conference, and the event at Grand Central (which one person told me was really lame).  But I would think that the enhanced security was too much to overcome.  Given the fact that the weather had cleared early in the day, not sure how much that hurt; but I would guess that some people on the fence the day before were discouraged by the downpours.

However, there was no excuse whatsoever for the endless beer lines, and the reports I've heard from various people of concession stands completely running out of supplies well before the end of the day.  The food trucks helped to a point - though the Head Chef spent no less than 40 minutes standing on line and then waiting for a fish taco.  (Note to Mike 'N' Willies: Made to order is a noble effort, but not practical in a racetrack with thousands of starving patrons.)  (But she said it was really good, and that's no faint praise from the Head Chef).  She also, eschewing a homemade mint julep surreptitiously and brilliantly smuggled into the track, tried to get a drink on the 3rd floor before the Manhattan, but the bar was completely out of everything - drinks and cups alike.

How can that be?  The crowd was smaller than expected/hoped for I'm sure, and you would think that they would be sure to be well-stocked given all the prohibitions on what the fans could bring in!  I mean....who's running this place?

Oh.  That's right.  Nobody.  Oh yeah, there's the interim leadership team.  But they can't possibly be expected to know the nuances of preparing a racetrack for a big event day.  Perhaps if the New NYRA Board had done their job and named a CEO with experience in running a track instead of diddling around with search firms to give the appearance that they are being SO thorough and industrious, he/she would have known exactly what to do.  (And with respect to the crowd, maybe he would have made sure to have a new Communications Director in place to replace Dan Silver well before just one month before the race.)  As I've said, there's only a handful of qualified people that are available to be CEO, and we know who they are.  Don't understand what the hell they are doing.  As far as I'm concerned, the responsibility for the shortages and inconveniences that could very well convince some fans to never bother coming back, Triple Crown possibility or not, falls squarely on the board and its chairman David Skorton.  And, by extension, to Governor Cuomo himself.  Thanks Governor Cuomo yourself.

[UPDATE: And STILL no CEO in place after today's NYRA Bored meeting.  Unbelievable.]

Here Comes Andrea On the Outside...

As far as the weather forecast for the weekend goes, what can one say.

(Via accuweather.com)

I knew this damn storm was going to be a problem when first read about a possible tropical depression in the Gulf a couple of days ago, and I hate when I'm right about stuff like that (as I usually am, wish I could handicap the horses as well as I do the weather).  So, I'm thinking of Harvey Pack, who used to start rainy days on the in-house feed at Saratoga by declaring "You're not going to have fun today!"  That's not necessarily true of course, but the reality is that the rain puts quite a damper on the proceedings, both in terms of the quality of the races and of the ambiance, so the point was surely well-taken.  (And, in this case, the security crap doesn't help either; no umbrellas allowed, among other things. )  Well, the "good" news is that this thing is supposed to clear out of here sometime during the day on Saturday, so the day may not be a total washout, though, with up to two to four inches of rain expected, the track is sure to be sloppy, and all of the non-stakes turf races (and maybe those too) will be off the grass.  And I kind of expect that Friday's races will be cancelled altogether.

Anyway and despite the dire forecast, it's Belmont week so even the mundane races on Wednesday took on a little bit of buzz.  Winners for both Kiaran McLaughlin and David Jacobson, both of whom we identified as HOT the other day.  McLaughlin and Darley dropped Rugged ($3.90) in for a tag; don't know if Darley bothers to try and pull anything over, but if they did then they didn't succeed here as he was taken for 60K by trainer William Badgett for owner Louis Roussel III.  Jacobson won the 4th with Nifty Shindig ($3.70); he'd claimed this horse for 35K two races back, picked up $30,600 winning his next out in a Starter Optional Claimer, dropped him to a conditional 15K race here (even after the 4th place finisher in his last race came back to win an open 25K), got the $18,000 purse money and got him claimed (by Maker/Ramsey).  So a nifty shindig indeed, a tidy gross profit of $28,600.  You can say what you want about Jacobson, and I know people have their suspicions, but he knows how and when to spot his horses, that's for sure.

In the 8th, Teen Pauline was .45-to-1 for the Toddster off a 276 day layoff (a loss at 3-5) and faded in the stretch to 4th, yikes.  At least the bridgejumpers exercised good judgment here and laid off.  Bliss ($17.40) won her 4th in a row; she'd been claimed three races back for 25K from Chad Brown by owner/trainer Danny Gargan out of a maiden claimer, took advantage of that placing to be eligible to win a couple of Starter Allowance affairs before taking this entry-level allowance.  Nice spotting there by the connections, who had been knocking at the door at the meet before getting its first win with this daughter of Flashy Bull out of a Thunder Gulch mare.

Post positions and morning line for the Belmont here.  The posts aren't generally considered a big deal given the distance; but it does mean that Freedom Child, whose connections must be thrilled about the prospect of a wet track, has the opportunity to get a jump on Oxbow on the inside if that's the way they intend to play it.  Assuming that Palace Malice is under control with the blinkers off, there really ain't much speed in here other than those two.  If Freedom Child has an awkward start as he did in the Peter Pan and can't quickly recover, or if jockey Luis Saez chooses not to challenge for the lead, or if he's just not up to the task, I don't know who else is gonna try and run with Oxbow. Giant Finish perhaps?  [UPDATE: Our buddy El Angelo points out in the comments that Ken McPeek says that Frac Daddy is gonna be sent from the rail.  I point out that I'm rather skeptical as to how much he will be factor regardless given the horse's lack of early speed, but we'll see.]

Orb is the morning line favorite at 3-1 (and remember, he seemed to like the slop just fine in the Derby), a price which would not excite me at all.  Revolutionary (9-2) is the second choice, and I'm not really getting that; besides, we're not supposed to bet dead closers in this race, right?  And especially on a wet track (though if it becomes a drying-out track by 6:36 post time, it could be a different story).

Pletcher was talking the other day about how Unlimited Budget prefers to run outside of horses, so he must be pleased with the 13 post that she drew.  And, as I mentioned the other day, her broodmare sire is Valid Appeal, who adored the off-going and has proven to be a major wet track influence at stud.  So I like her a bit more with that prospect; and, additionally, her Oaks effort produced a big speed figure with my numbers, as opposed to the five point backward move on the Beyers.  Not to mention that Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches, both of whom finished behind the Toddster's filly in the Oaks, came back to run 1-2 in the Acorn; 9th place finisher Seaneed Girl ran second in an allowance at Fair Grounds.  Unlimited Budget was however made the co-4th choice in the morning line at 8-1. Wondering if the oddsmaker is considering what he believes to be her true chances, or is accounting for the casual money she is likely to attract given the publicity about her and her jockey Rosie Napravnik.  Either way, that would be a disappointment to me in terms of her value.

Tuesday Notes and Ramblings

 - Took a few days off from writing, and I had a few things to say so it's a pretty long post covering a fair amount of ground.  But it does actually have a logical flow to it all, so here we go.

 - Orb was declared a 'go' for the Belmont on Sunday by trainer Shug McGaughey following the colt's half-mile work in :48.30 at Belmont Park and gallop-out of five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.48. 

  "I was looking for a strong gallop-out and we got what we were looking for. I want to have a good horse for the summer, but he's doing good right now, and you never know what can happen between now and then." [Bloodhorse]

But even as the trainer looks forward, did I hear a hint of new excuses for Orb's failure at Pimlico? 

"I’m sure when the other riders had him down inside they weren’t going to let him out especially as slow as they were going and I think the racetrack was different. It was very loose. It just wasn’t our day."  [NY Daily News]

Don't think I've heard the 'loose and different track' excuse before nor, at least from Shug, a notation (with a slightly whiney tone) that the riders race rode against him.  But of everything we've heard from anyone in the two + weeks since the Preakness, the most succinct, and most likely accurate, is: "It just wasn't our day."  If we all had just acknowledged and accepted that, we wouldn't still be taking about it.

(Then again, that wouldn't be any fun.  For a Triple Crown series with different Derby and Preakness winners, and neither race being particularly competitive, it sure has generated a lot of discussion.)

I'm a fan of the horse, and think he'll be a fair price in what is expected to be a big field.  Shug noted that: “My biggest concern is a 14- or 15-horse field because I don’t think a lot of them belong." [NYT]  The thing is though that horses that don't belong don't get bet that way in Triple Crown races these days, so each entry should inflate Orb's odds more than it should.  Still, I dunno, just have a gut feeling that he's gonna lose.  With all the stats and angles we horseplayers consume ourselves with, sometimes you just gotta go with that, right?

The filly Unlimited Budget had a nice half mile work on Monday and is in. 

  “She worked really well,” Pletcher said. “I thought she was full of run throughout, finished up strongly, galloped out well, seemed to cool out well. [DRF]

I'm excited that she's running, as explained in the prior post.  As a young filly, she gets a pass for throwing in a bad one - that wasn't really all that bad.  (It was better than Orb's Preakness in terms of finish position and Beyer, so if we're giving him a pass, why not her.)  Hopefully she won't attract too much casual money with the Rosie/filly angle, but regardless I can definitely see her on my tickets in some way on Saturday.

I was at Belmont for awhile on Sunday and ran into a friend who was with a group with an impressive two-table picnic display.  We were talking about the Belmont, and got the sense they didn't know the security rules.  'Y'know, you can't bring coolers next week.'   'WHAT??'   These guys all seemed like regulars and they had no idea.  Thinking about it, I've seen the press release, and it's posted on the NYRA website.  The rules were widely tweeted, and I suppose they got some mentions in the press and blogs.  (Though if I Google 'belmont stakes security measures,' all I get is stories about the security at the barns for the horses.)

But I think NYRA really needs to go the extra mile to get the word out on this.  I know they want to get the most out of their advertising dollars, but they really need to devote some ad space or time to advise people of, particularly, the no cooler policy.  Maybe I've missed it, but I haven't seen anything in the ads I've seen, most recently in my inbox via the Village Voice.  Nothing.  If people don't know that they can't bring coolers for their picnics, there could be a crush at the parking lot entrances as people try to arrive and leave at the same time.

At Belmont on Sunday, another winner for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, and two for David Jacobson, and these barns are most definitely HOT.  McLaughlin had won five in a row on May 30-31, and here he got back on the board with Which Market ($6.70) in the 3rd.  This horse was going first time for a tag, and that's a 33% winning move and $2.53 ROI for this barn over the past three years.  Jacobson now has 25 winners from 84 runners for a win percentage of 30%.  He didn't lose even when Big Business ($4.30) made every effort to do so by lugging in for the entire length of the stretch.

Rudy Rodriguez had a winner with Quiet Power ($14.40) in the 9th.  But he is definitely not hot.  In fact, he's decidedly COLD.  That win broke a winless streak of 31 at Belmont, according to my unofficial tabulation; he also had a futility streak of 24 in April.  Based on a quick scan through his races going back to his start as a trainer in Feb 2010, I'm gonna play Elias Sport Bureau here and guess that either of those would qualify as the longest winless streaks of his career.  He's 22% on his career, but 11% at this meeting.   I think that if you've followed along here over the years, you know that I'm quite careful about drawing conclusions and throwing accusations at trainers.   And I'm not gonna do that here (specifically).  However, coming on the heels of his suspension, and the subsequent positives, and the extra scrutiny by the racing commission in Kentucky......man, there's no denying, this looks really, really bad.

Continuing to ramble on, the last I've read about the Federal Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act is via press release on Paulick's site last month in conjunction with the bill being introduced in the House of Representatives.  I think I'm on record somewhere in the 3,965 posts here as saying that such legislation would never pass.  That remains to be seen, but this bill has a long ways to go; it's merely been referred to a House committee.  The GovTrack.us site gives it a prognosis of a 13% chance of getting past committee, 6% chance of being enacted.

Indeed, it seems quite hard to believe that it will get much attention in the House this year given the current environment there.  The majority party, instead of actually trying to pass laws, has been busy voting 37 times in a futile and petty attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act.  And they are currently consumed in a frantic investigation frenzy of so-called scandals, most ludicrously their attempt to elevate what was clearly, in my view anyway, poor judgment on the part of low level staff at an IRS office in Cincinnati as to the best way to seek out supposed "social welfare" groups that seek to abuse their tax-exempt status, into a grand plot to sabotage conservative groups directed personally by the president.  Absurd.

And besides, even if this bill ever made it to the floor, considering that Republicans are so against government regulation of business and markets - even if human lives and livelihoods are potentially at stake - and were so ardently opposed even to common sense background checks as a prerequisite to purchase guns in the wake of the gruesome massacres of recent times as an unacceptable intrusion by the government, I'm supposed to believe that a relative handful of horse racing trainers caught cheating with drugs raises to the level in their eyes of an acceptable encroachment of the evil government?

Was reading, for the first time, this article by Joe Drape from May 1 about how the racing industry is "eager" for such a bill that would allow the US Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) to establish national medication rules and penalties, and couldn't help but think about this piece about gun company executives that was on the front page of the Times a couple of weeks ago.  Opposing regulation at every turn, they testified in depositions a decade ago that they basically didn't really care who their guns are sold to.  And to leave them the hell alone.

The executives claimed not to know if their guns had ever been used in a crime. They eschewed voluntary measures to lessen the risk of them falling into the wrong hands. And they denied that common danger signs — like a single person buying many guns at once or numerous “crime guns” that are traced to the same dealer — necessarily meant anything at all.

I've written often about how the racing industry has been painted into a cowering defensive posture, and nowhere is it more apparent than here.  As despicable as these gun stooges are, refusing to even acknowledge, and expressing cold indifference to, the tragic consequences of unregulated distribution of their products, to see that kind of backbone from racing executives would surely be a sign of a healthier industry.  One would think that, in a more ideally structured racing world, industry officials would be standing up to say "Hey, we know what's good for our game, we're taking steps to address the problems, we don't need the government telling us how to run our business, and hey, we can't control bad guys who don't follow the rules.  So back off."  (And then going out and actually addressing those problems.)  Instead, they're like "Oh yes, please regulate us, oh mighty federal government agency with your expertise in baseball and Lance Armstrong."  Seriously, this is what it comes down to?  Is this industry really that helpless and pathetic that this is what it really wants?  To throw up their hands and cede significant authority and control of their business to the government? Did any "eager" racetrack officials even read the part of the bill that would make their interstate simulcast rights subject to "consent" by the USADA?

OK, I'm done...

Friday Morning Filly Notes

Female jockey set to ride filly in Belmont Stakes reads the headline for the AP story on Rosie Napravnik riding Unlimited Budget for Pletcher.  To me, the bigger if not the only real news there is about the horse.  I've been watching women ride at high levels of the game in New York and at tracks around the country all my life, so it's rather second nature to me, and I haven't really been paying much mind or attention to the stories about Ms. Napravnik throughout the Triple Crown season.  Like the others before her, Rosie has established herself as a trusted member of the jockey room in a world of good ol' boys; her record speaks for itself, and doesn't need to be validated in the overhyped Triple Crown series in my view.  Reading further though, I was surprised to read that Rosie is the first woman to ride in all three races in the same year; and that she was only the third woman to ever ride in the Preakness.  I would have guessed that it was less uncommon.  So, it's worth the mention, and makes for an appealing story line (though NBC already used their Michelle Beadle/Rosie card in the Preakness).  But it still just doesn't register as a big deal to me, to be honest.

Now, before I say anything to get me in (any further?) trouble with the females of the species that can read this, let's turn to the horse.  The prospect of the Toddster running a filly with such obvious talent is of course reminiscent of Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont, easily the most exciting and memorable edition of the race since Victory Gallop ran down Real Quiet in 1998.  (And one of my few successful Belmont Stakes wagers.)  Commenting on the two, Pletcher said:

  “Both have accomplished a lot and both are big, strong fillies, which is what you look for when planning to run against colts.....Unlimited Budget is a strong filly with a lot of conditioning. [NY Daily News]

Their running styles are actually pretty similar, both being of the stalker/mid-pack closer type.  While Rags to Riches had won three of four coming into the Belmont, Unlimited Budget has won four of five.  However, I don't think anyone can make the case that the two are comparable talent-wise at this stage.  Rags to Riches lost her first race before reeling off three Grade 1 wins in a row, winning the Kentucky Oaks with a Beyer of 104.  Unlimited Budget won her first four, including two Grade 2's, but fell short in the Oaks. 

However, I do find her a little interesting here.  She did run a 98 Beyer two back in her FG Oaks win, and that number definitely puts her in the range of these.  Surely has the running style to win (perhaps Pletcher should instruct Rosie to make the horse stumble out of the gate), and there's some pedigree there.  She's a daughter of the Derby winner Street Sense out of a mare by Valid Appeal (an old favorite who we don't see close-up much in pedigrees these days; associate him more with milers to be honest, but man, watch out if it rains) who's a half-sister to the Super Derby winner Outofthebox and to the dam of the versatile Tackleberry.  OK, maybe not crying out for distance, but I'm trying to not get too caught up in that this year and handicap the Belmont more like a regular race.  Yeah, we'll see how that turns out.

 - In the 8th at Belmont on Friday, Lead Singer (8-1) looks to bounce back after tiring to finish well back in his first try against winners, for trainer John Kimmel.  This barn got off to a slow start to the meet, but has definitely shown life of late with two winners and two seconds from its last seven starts.  Son of Unbridled's Song graduated two back with a nice figure on my numbers.  Moving up to allowance company in his last, he encountered yielding turf and a loose on the lead Stormy Len (7-2), who was cutting a steady Oxbow-like pace on his own.  When prompted, Lead Singer made a nice wide move into that pace, drawing even as they turned for home.  The problems noted in the long form trouble line comment - bump, squeeze, steadied - took place I think after he had started to tire, but surely contributed to his 15 3/4 length margin of defeat.  Two nice works since then; and note that his bullet half-mile three days ago replicates his workout pattern prior to his maiden win.  Perhaps he prefers the firm course he'll get today; and perhaps Stormy Len doesn't enjoy the same unchallenged lead?  Seems worth his 8-1 morning line to find out.  Mills (3-1) earned the top number in the race on my figs rallying to graduate at Keeneland in his last, and three horses from that race have subsequently come back to win.  Cuts back in distance here, and the Tagg barn has sent out a lot of well-bet losers of late; but seems the one to beat.  Odeon (4-1) ships in for west coast trainer John Sherriffs, who seems to have a contingent here; but his first two runners have raced poorly despite being well-bet; wait and see.   Best of luck and have a great day. 

Saratoga Harness Track Stakes Its Claim

The Saratoga harness track will proceed with a $30 million upgrade; and, as opposed to a slightly richer plan offered last year with the contingency of being granted one of the coveted casino licenses, this one comes with no such strings attached.  Of course, the message and intent is quite obvious. 

But the operators also made it clear, without once mentioning the term "table games," that they believe the existing Saratoga Casino and Raceway is an ideal spot for a full gaming resort given Saratoga's history as a gambling town, its status as a horse racing landmark and the presence of attractions including the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, museums and spring-fed baths.

"Here in Saratoga we have the best of everything," said James Featherstonhaugh, the racino's chief spokesman and part owner, as he unveiled a $30 million expansion that includes a 120-room hotel and a 24,000-square-foot venue that could host mixed martial arts events if that sport is approved by lawmakers. [Times Union]

Featherstonhaugh might be feeling pretty good about his chances these days.  Besides his long-standing prominence amongst the ranks of Albany lobbyists with the "influential" label, he knows that the playing field of areas eligible for a casino has shrunk considerably with the deals that Governor Cuomo struck with two tribes, granting regional exclusivity (other than existing facilities) in exchange for a share of Indian gaming revenues.  That development is cheering other hopefuls around the state, such as the proposed project at the Nevele resort in Ellenville.  (Negotiations continue with the Seneca tribe.....the big prize for the governor, as that tribe has withheld some $500 million in payments over their claims that racinos violate the terms of their compact, which expires in 2016.)

However, I still think that Saratoga, or any other of the existing racinos, have to be considered longshots given the extremely strong language that the governor used in expressing opposition to siting casinos there last year.  And personally, I rather fear the prospect of charming little Saratoga becoming a gambling city.  Well, you know......that kind of gambling.

I believe I missed during the Derby rush the news that Cuomo intends to go ahead with the casino referendum this year despite some earlier misgivings over the fact that New York City voters figure to dominate the turnout with the mayoral election, and with no state-wide legislative elections on tap.  He still has to get the legislation through however, so expect a flurry of activity as the legislative session enters its final month and some lawmakers seek to expand upon his plan to limit the first round of casinos to three located upstate.

Wednesday News and Notes

After sitting out the Preakness, the Toddster plans to return to the Triple Crown series (do we still call it that even though there won't be a Triple Crown winner?) with up to five entrants, all of whom worked out on Monday. 

  “I thought everyone worked very well.....I think Palace Malice worked unbelievably well. To me, it was a monstrous gallop out." [NYRA Press Office]

Oh, man.  Here we go.  His prior work was a half mile breeze in 47 2/5, second fastest of 35 works.  It's hard to evaluate this colt off his last three starts.  In the Louisiana Derby, in which I loved him, he was hopelessly boxed, stymied 5/16 to 1/8 according to the chart.  Two weeks later, in the Blue Grass, he ran great, though on synth, but ran second after showing greenness in the stretch.  That led to the blinkers that sent him giddily to the lead in suicidal fractions in the Derby before fading to 12th (though only a length and a half plus three heads behind Oxbow, who chased him).  Now he's had two very impressive works.  I keep going back to that Blue Grass - I was really surprised by how well he ran on a new surface, one that I don't believe will ever be his best game.  I didn't bet him in the Blue Grass, and wouldn't have been that upset if he won at 9-2; thought he was way overbet first time synth off two weeks rest.  But I would surely be upset if he won the Belmont at 10-1 and I didn't have him.  There's some price out there that I'm absolutely locked in to him.

 - NYRA will conduct a Belmont Stakes fan festival at Grand Central Terminal on the Friday before the race, with some fun activities. 

  Stakes Stampede, where fans propel a horse displayed on a screen to the finish line by running in place.

  If only that would work in real life, we'd all be in fantastic shape. 

  Mini Belmont Races, complete with a bugler and professional race caller Larry Lederman, in which fans can jump on one of three mechanical ponies and head around the racetrack to the finish line.

Ah, Larry Lederman, great to hear his name, and hope he is doing OK these days.  We could surely use more guys like him to bring some color, character, and humor into the race calls.

 - Wanted to clarify a couple of things about the Belmont Stakes security rules (the ones for fans attending the races that day, that is).  First of all....and I've been meaning to write this.....I'd written previously that the measures go well beyond anything I've personally ever seen for a sporting event.  And, upon further reflection, that's not really true at all.  They are so unlike anything we've ever seen around here at a racetrack that I lost context.  Fans are wanded and/or patted down at NFL games, and the practice was instituted late in the hockey season at the Garden following the Boston attack.  (And I believe they've been in place at Knicks games for longer than that).  Can't bring items such as umbrellas or backpacks into football games either; nor bags of food - I have to take the items out of the bag and bring them in individually (though not in plastic bags of a certain size).  (I've always thought that binoculars could be used at least as easily as a weapon than umbrellas....but what do I know?)

Secondly, a reader downplays the potential snags, noting that "they had very similar security at Pimlico, where there are less, and smaller, entrance areas, and it was pretty easy getting in."  And I have no doubt that, should there be proper planning and sufficient personnel, then it could be fine.  It's relatively quick and easy to get into Jets games these days.....but it took time, experience, and, most crucially, a lot of personnel to make that happen.  NYRA doesn't have that experience, and I find it a little scary that their first go at this will be on this particular day.  The press release notes that the restrictions were developed "in concert with.....racing and security officials in Kentucky and Maryland."  Hopefully, those officials will be able to successfully impart their experience to NYRA.

And just want to be clear too that I'm not suggesting that you don't go to the track that day (though I wouldn't mind the extra real estate!).  With a little weather luck, still promises to be a great day.  The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be one of the more interesting ones we've have in awhile; and I know that most of you guys love the plethora of Grade 1 stakes (though I'd be thrilled with the Belmont Stakes + 11 or 12 full-field conditional claimers).  But one has to be smart - arrive early or late, read the rules, be respectful of the folks doing their difficult jobs, and don't be an asshole.  If you pull into the lots at 12:30, don't expect to get down on the race going off at 1PM.  If everybody - fans and NYRA - do their part, it could be smooth(ish) sailing.

At Least One Security Casualty for Belmont Day

The Head Chef is an official defection from the Belmont Stakes due to the increased security.  "I don't want to stand on line for 45 minutes to get in," is her main reason, moreso than the actual restrictions on what can be brought in.  Not sure where she got the 45 minute figure; but seems like a reasonable over/under.  (She also knows that I would surely abandon her to enter via the press entrance [wherever that may be], though that promises to be slow as well with all the questionable characters granted press credentials these days! :)

11,664 on hand for Memorial Day, and I saw lines to get in which seemed, if not really long, really slow, and that didn't seem like a good sign for Belmont day in any event.  Looked like coolers were getting more scrutiny than usual.  On the other hand, coolers (including the mini-itsy-bitsy-coolers that NYRA gave out on Monday) won't be permitted on Belmont Day.  But between the individual wanding and searches of pocketbooks less than 12" and whatever else we're actually allowed to bring in; as well as all of the inevitable arguments over interpretations and applications of the draconian rules, man, it's not gonna be pretty.  I hope NYRA has a plan in mind, and that they're planning to hire a LOT of extra personnel to handle the crush.  Because there's a real limited number of admission booths in place at each entrance - especially the entrances in the grandstand that people with their see-through containers of food and drink need to pass through.  Thinking about it more, people might get off really easy at 45 minutes.

Sorry I missed the Met Mile; a thrilling finish indeed.  And also a typical American dirt race on a distinctively American holiday.  Cross Traffic, after breaking in at the start, quickly established the lead, blazed the first half mile in 44.88 seconds, and then got home the last half mile in 49.30. Yet, even after repelling the charge of Mark Valeski, he was still able to hold on grimly until the final bob, having bottomed out anyone else who was within shouting distance.  This created the illusion that Sahara Sky ($11.60), dead last down the backstretch, was flying home to catch him, whereas he was tiring too, finishing up in 24.19 after splits of 22.33 and 23.20.   No one else in the field closed faster than 24.88.  Sahara Sky is 3/4s of a length shy of having won four graded stakes in a row.  He's by Pleasant Tap out of a stakes-winning Storm Cat mare; he has a younger brother named Animal Style (Spanish Steps) who won a sprint stakes on the grass at Fair Grounds this year.

Time now, if you don't mind, for a little bragging and whining.....I mean, that's a great deal of what this game is all about, yes?  Bragging about the winner I picked here at Churchill on Sunday (Gentleman's Kitten, $13.80).  Whining about Noosh's Tale, who I picked here at Belmont on Monday, and who got necked out at the wire by a hopeless looking 36-1 shot.  Ouch.  Not only did I lose the win bet and cold exacta over favored With Exultation, turned out that I would have had the daily double and the pick three as well.  It was a beat that kept on beating.   A tough start to the day from which I never recovered.  My other pick on Monday, Rakin' Gold, put in a nice effort too in the 5th, at 20-1, getting caught for the place spot a couple of steps before the wire.  Of course, I had him win/place.  One can always take a certain amount of satisfaction from picking live horses at good prices no matter what the result, but moral victories will only take one so far in this game.  And in anything else for that matter.

Belmont Monday (Early)

As per the comments section in the last post, it's a beautiful Memorial Day, and the grills will be fired up in backyards around the country come the late afternoon.  Which means that I, and many others, will not be at the track or front of the TV come 5:45, post time for today's Met Mile.  I remember, back in the days when there were actually - gasp - regularly scheduled single admission doubleheaders in baseball, the Pirates used to start theirs at 10:30 AM so that fans could catch a couple of games and be home in a timely manner.  That time seems about right to me as the first race post time on a day like today.

However, that not being the case, let's have some fun and try a couple of longshots in the early races at Belmont today.

In the 1st at Belmont, Noosh's Tale (10-1) goes second off the layoff for trainer Pat Kelly, a low percentage but quite capable barn as we've mentioned in the past.  Sent off at 41-1, jockey Alex Solis had to work his way out to the widest path upon turning from home, and having lost any forward momentum from there, rallied nicely to finish less than a length behind Toy Cannon (5-2) and Gossip Column (5-1).  This son of Tale of the Cat earned an excellent figure with my numbers in a 2yo stakes race last year, and seems excellent relative value, with a smoother trip, to turn the tables on those two who figure to go off at significantly lower odds; value play.  In any case, With Exultation (9-5) was a well-bet winner in his debut for Christophe Clement and figures to be the one to beat.

In the 5th, Rakin Gold (12-1) returns off a 148 day layoff for trainer Dominick Schettino.  I'm looking at the trainer's record in the range of 110 to 185 days (25% around the length of today's layoff), and though I don't see any wins, he's 50% in the money over the last three years with a couple of very close seconds....so I'm gonna say that his horses are generally well-prepared in this scenario.  Her last two efforts before the layoff, on dirt, are horrendous; but this horse has some nice turf efforts, especially the two that were not on a yielding course.  Her maiden win came in a key race at this distance on this course, and she was caught wide both turns in a subsequent mile allowance race, earning, in both races, figures, with my numbers, well fast enough to be competitive here at a big price.  Satin Sheeks (7-2) had some nice grass form last year and returns off a 345 day layoff for the proficient layoff barn of Mike Hushion.  Morning line favorite Omelia (5-2) had no apparent excuse as the favorite in her last, succumbing to the uninspiring and poor speller Mah Jong Maddnes; move outside to the 10 post here is no help.    Best of luck and have a great Memorial Day.

Sunday Morning Notes

 - The Derby runner-up Golden Soul was supposed to have his first official workout since then on Saturday, but it was delayed for at least one more day by trainer Dallas Stewart. 

  “I’m still working on his appetite. The work could be any day, when I feel that is 100 percent.” [DRF]

  Oh, well, that's really not good, right?  I'm hardly an expert on equine dining habits.  But we always read a trainer tell us about how a horse "ate up" after a race to show how well it recovered.  I don't know that I've ever, in all my long experience, read a statement like this....probably something that a trainer generally keeps to him/herself. 

  "He ran a great race in the Derby, but it was a hard race on him and his appetite is still coming back."  [Miami Herald]

And remember, Golden Soul took the absolute shortest route home, while Orb ran 80 feet more in the wide path.  So, perhaps, this should add a little perspective and make one more forgiving of Orb's lackluster performance two weeks later.  Sure, we've seen Derby winners come back and run big in the Preakness.  But not, according to my aforementioned really smart co-worker, horses who have closed from far back to do so, at least in the last 25 years.  These are the stats for their next races, with Barbaro and Grindstone excluded: 

Those positioned less than 5 lengths back: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutuel $7.70

Those positioned 5 to 10 lengths back: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutuel $7.30

Those positioned more than 10 lengths back: 9-0-4-1 (0% wins, 55.56% ITM)

Now, some of this may be attributed to the human factor, a determination on the part of trainers and jockeys to not reproduce a meltdown pace that may have caused a horse to win the Derby from far back.  And conversely, I don't think any of us expect Oxbow's rivals to allow him to skip away to an uncontested lead again; which would surely bode well for Orb and the other closers.  But whether due to physical or competitive factors, these are interesting stats worth keeping in mind.

 - I was watching HRTV early on yesterday, and Jeff Siegel was all giddy about the holiday weekend and the extra day of racing it produces.  The problem, as I see it, is that most tracks don't have the quality stock on hand to produce three weekend-worthy programs of racing.  If you don't believe that, just take a look at Belmont's card today, which is barely worthy of a Thursday.  And anecdotally based on my scanning the various cards yesterday, I don't think it's just a local problem here.  I was in a gambling mode....I was just dying to lose some hard-earned cash - PLEASE, TAKE MY MONEY! - yet it seemed that any upcoming race I turned to, if it wasn't on a sloppy track, was a maiden claiming race or a six or seven horse field with a lopsided tote board.  And then you get Memorial Day at Belmont, and we get the four graded stakes race card and, other than the Met Mile which looks dandy, the short fields and poor betting contests that that often denotes here in NY.  So, the weather situation has turned around and I'm excited for a gorgeous day at the big track tomorrow, but here's hoping that there are some attractive betting contests to play elsewhere on the simulcast menu.

 - Well, General Election indeed took to the turf and won the Arlington Classic.  When I wrote yesterday that I would play him underneath and curse my fate should he win, that was based on his 5-1 morning line.  When I looked at the tote around eight minutes to post, I was stunned to see that he was 17-1 at that time.  Just as he was a huge overlay in the Lexington, he was similarly overlooked here....and at least this time he was coming off a great effort as opposed to the clunker he'd thrown in before the Keeneland race.  Some horses often go off at overlays like that, hard to determine exactly why.  But at that price, I had to throw a few bucks on him to win.  He got bet down a bit to 13-1, but still not complaining about that.

 - In the 8th at Churchill today, Gentleman's Kitten (4-1)  returns off a 228 day layoff and tries winners for the first time.  Hmm, that doesn't really sound that appetizing at that price, and consider too that he goes for the Ken Ramsey stable, which likely won't help as far as value goes.  However, on the plus side, trainer Wayne Catalano is sharp with a couple of winners yesterday, including Oscar Party, who won off a layoff of 204 days.  True, that horse is a stakes winner, and Gentleman's Kitten beat an uninspiring maiden field when last seen last fall at Keeneland.  However, adding blinkers and stretching out to a mile after getting left at the gate in his debut, in which he was bet to 4-5 at five furlongs, this son of Kitten's Joy battled for the lead on the inside throughout, and looked like he would be swallowed up in the stretch before battling back gamely to get the win.  Here, he faces what appears to be a highly favorable pace scenario with the main contenders of the plodding variety; and he comes in off a series of sparkling works, including what appears to be a heads-up drill with the aforementioned Oscar Party on May 19 at Churchill (they both are listed as having gone 5 furlongs in 59 4/5).  So, gotta keep to one's principles as far as value goes, but think he's set to run a good one here, and Rapacious (5-2) has been burning a lot of money from rapacious chalk players and will hopefully do so here.  Greengrassofyoming (5-1) closed well for second in a similar situation in his last - off a layoff and facing winners for the first time - but lost to the money-burning Film Making despite a perfect pace set-up that he's unlikely to see here.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Saturday Morning Notes

Orb galloped at Belmont on Thursday, and trainer Shug McGaughey was "pleased."  We did not hear anything about 'breathtaking' or 'chills' and I think Shug now has a bit of a credibility problem in that respect anyway. 

  "If everything's right, he's doing right, puts his weight back on, his energy level's good, we would like to run in the Belmont," [DRF]

The debate over his Preakness performance - whether it was merely a disappointing effort explained by his journey on what many people feel was the worst part of the track, or as proof that Orb's Derby win was, in large part....I haven't heard anyone call it a fluke......but let's say, attributable to a significant degree to the feverish pace.  Personally, I feel he had a legitimate excuse.  Pull the Pocket made an interesting case that he wasn't that farther towards the rail than the winner.  Even so....and, in fact, even if there was nothing wrong with the inside, I think it's a legitimate excuse that he was boxed in there after always having a clear running lane on the outside in his prior races.  "Uncomfortable" is the way I've heard his trip described; might add awkward as well.  And, as I've mentioned, Oxbow was setting a steady jackhammer pace which discouraged the field behind him.  Stevens mentioned how he tried to open up lengths turning for home to do exactly that, and successful he was.

Now, having said all that however, I'd be lying if I said the bloom wasn't at least a little off the rose for me.  I mean, he was never really in it, just that minor spurt on the backstretch that fizzled out faster than the push for strengthened gun laws.  The Belmont is shaping up as a full field with a fair amount of depth; and should Orb be the betting favorite, I can see myself taking an aggressive stand against.

(And by the way, taking another look at Orb's past performance lines.....would you speculate that his advancement at three traces back to his stretching out to two turns?  Or to the administering of Lasix?)

Palace Malice is apparently in. Dogwood president Cot Campbell:

  "The blinkers that jazzed him up in the Kentucky Derby come off and we anticipate no problem with pace or distance. He always rated kindly in previous races, and he will be in good hands with Mike Smith." [Miami Herald]

  I kinda wish he wasn't running because I'm committed to betting on him after his excuses when I bet him in the Louisiana Derby and, as a saver, in the Derby.  I know, he's Curlin out of a Royal Anthem mare, but I'm not excited by the prospects of him going a mile and a half.  But, then again, I'm not particularly thrilled in general by the ability of the modern North American-bred thoroughbred to go that distance.  And if last year's winner (quick, can you name him?) can win this race, it just proves that I don't have a clue as to how to handicap it.

Weather is lousy around here; it feels more like Thanksgiving weekend than Memorial Day!  Track at Belmont  is muddy and they're off the turf except for the stakes (as of this writing), so let's try a race elsewhere.

In the 10th at Arlington, the G3 Arlington Classic for 3yo's on the grass, Procurement (4-1)  ships in from California for trainer Tom Proctor.  This barn doesn't have a winner from five starters at the meet, but they've certainly been live, with two 2nds, a third, and two 4ths.  Son of Milwaukee Brew (whose half-brother No Inflation ran second in this race in 2009) seems to have blossomed here in the spring since finding his niche going two turns, coming off two very sharp such efforts at Santa Anita.  He may have had an ideal trip positionally in his last, sitting in third behind two dueling leaders as he did; but that was a quick and steady pace that he tracked closely, and, when given his cue by Garrett Gomez, he circled them on the turn with authority and edged away for a clear win.  (Gomez was scheduled to fly in for the ride, but took the rest of the day off after getting dropped in the first at Hollywood yesterday, so keep an eye on that.)   My speed figures show him with a distinct edge on morning line favorite Admiral Kitten (3-1), who also ran well in closing for second in his last, a stakes at Churchill, and who comes in for the Maker-Ramsey juggernaut.  And here we also have General Election (5-1), who I picked here prior to his second, at 34-1, in the Lexington on the synth at Keeneland, and whose trainer Kellyn Gorder continues to be sharp.   Don't know that he'll get the pace setup he needs in this field as he tries grass for the first time, so I'll use him underneath and curse my fate should he win.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Belmont Stakes Rules and Regulations Cast a Pall

I'm sure that the NYRA press office, and new Director of Communications Eric Wing, would rather be spending their time differently than issuing the two press releases they have in the last couple of days.  On Tuesday, it was the announcement of the enhanced security protocols for the Belmont Stakes horses (in conjunction with the New York State Gaming Commission, on which there may actually be members other than Robert Williams sometime in the near future).

And on Wednesday, it was the "modified security policies" for fans attending the Belmont Stakes.  Nothing moderate about these modifications; they are shockingly draconian and go well beyond anything I've personally ever seen for a sporting event.  However many people NYRA lost in attendance when Orb lost the Preakness, you gotta figure they'll lose at least as many because of this.  It's a really long day there man, and to believe that the tens of thousands who party and picnic in the backyard and other green spaces will all be willing to come without coolers even with only soda and water (not to mention the creative concoctions including already-banned alcohol); and with a single portion of food and beverage per person in a clear plastic bag (Jessica tweets: The 2013 Belmont Stakes brought to you by the TSA) is a pipe dream I think (though don't get any idea about bringing any pipes or other illicit paraphernalia).

People are gonna reflexively blame NYRA as usual, but I would say they are doing what they have been advised to do in the wake of the Boston bombing.  The press release takes pains to point out that the policy was "developed in concert with federal, state, and local law enforcement officials, as well as racing and security officials in Kentucky and Maryland."   Indeed, just as it's a sad commentary on the game that tracks feel the need to implement, mostly for show in my opinion and as I've said before, such harsh controls for races at the highest echelon of the game, these security procedures for people are quite the sad commentary on the state of the world.  No doubt it's the equivalent of a signer for those who seek to disrupt our way of life.  Because it's disrupting our way of life.  (And, by the way, no truth to the rumor that the IRS is singling out Tea Party members for scrutiny of their racetrack winnings.)

Well, for those of you who don't like clicking on links, I thought I'd summarize the measures that are being taken both for horses on the backstretch and for people in the grandstand (including employees, vendors, and the insidious media).  However, my eyes are glazing over from all these relentless rules and restrictions, so I think I might have gotten a little mixed up.   And perhaps a bit carried away. Please let me know if you notice anything awry.

  - All horses will be subjected to an electronic wand search upon entering the paddock.  Trainers are advised to arrive early in order to remove the horses' shoes for inspection.

 - The Commission shall take out-of-degenerate-gambling blood samples of fans planning to attend the race on Wednesday, June 5 and send them to the Anthony Weiner campaign for testing.

 - As in years past, alcohol may not be brought onto the grounds; but beer will flow abundantly at refreshment stands, and any patron desiring an injection of Lasix can receive one with an appointment with Commission investigators and a note from their doctors (which must be carried by hand and not in a briefcase or a duffel bag, both banned).

 - Entry/exit logs will be maintained by additional security personnel from NYRA and the Commission.  All persons entering a stall in the restrooms (should they be operational) or engaging in any contact with porcelain objects or performing any services will be logged in with a reason for their visit.

 - Horses will be permitted a supply of hay and feed, to be contained in a clear see through plastic container no larger than 175"L x 87"W x 85"H (as long as they don't plan to grill, which is banned).

 - To comply with the ban on tripods, no races with claiming tags less than $15,000 will be carded.

 - Ice will be sold on the grounds at minimal prices for horses who need to be iced down (with the permission of, and supervision by, Commission investigators).

 -  A full daily doctor's record of all medications and treatments given to fans from noon on June 5 through race day will be provided to the Stewards.  Such records will be posted on the NYRA website and announced daily during the Talking Horses segment.  All prescription and over-the-counter drugs will be confiscated upon entrance, and no treatments for patrons will be permitted on raceday unless it is approved by Andy Serling.

 - No air horns or noise makers, and patrons are asked to keep cheering to a minimum (which shouldn't effect me at least).  Fans are prohibited from slapping rolled-up programs against their legs, snapping their fingers at the screens, or making any other sound that might indicate that they are having fun.

 - No saddles larger than 18" in diameter.

 - Patrons can't spray mace at the horses or jockeys.

 - Cell phones and tablets are permitted, but all Twitter accounts in horses' names are banned.  Forever.

 - No Weapons.  So jockeys will not be permitted to carry whips.